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Digital data streams and machine learning for real-time modeling of vaccine-preventable infectious diseases

Award Number: R35GM146974
ORGANIZATION: NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF GENERAL MEDICAL SCIENCES
OPDIV: NIH
AWARD CLASS: DISCRETIONARY
AWARD ACTIVITY TYPE: SCIENTIFIC/HEALTH RESEARCH (INCLUDES SURVEYS)
PERIOD OF PERFORMANCE START DATE: 09/01/2022
PERIOD OF PERFORMANCE END DATE: 08/31/2027

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Digital data streams and machine learning for real-time modeling of vaccine-preventable infectious diseases - Over the last 30 years, a new field––known as computational epidemiology (comp epi)––has emerged at the intersection of digital data streams (e.g., news and social media, search query, and mobility data), machine learning (e.g., nonlinear optimization, natural language processing, and agent-based modeling), and public health crises. Due to the ongoing SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, as well as other pathogens that have resurged in the United States (e.g., mumps virus), comp epi has shifted part of its focus as a field to improving public health decision-making during outbreaks and epidemics of infectious disease. In this proposal, we present four foundational challenges within the context of infectious disease research and comp epi more broadly. While the first three of these challenges are more conventionally scientific in nature, the fourth involves scientific community-building: (1) estimating the time-varying transmissibility (i.e., the effective reproduction number, REff) of a given infectious disease; (2) real-time monitoring and measurement of transmissibility-relevant behaviors (e.g., human mobility, etc.); (3) forecasting of outbreaks and epidemics as a function of individual health behaviors; and (4) recruitment of new scholars to the yet-insular field of comp epi. To address these challenges, we propose the development of (1) a meta-analytical tool for ensemble estimation of REff across multiple research groups; (2) a surveillance system to monitor transmissibility-relevant behaviors, including an inference system to produce more representative measures for human mobility; (3) a generalizable agent-based model for epidemic forecasting that features behavioral parameters, as informed by the aforementioned surveillance and inference systems; and (4) a virtual laboratory for comp epi scholars to collaborate on infectious disease research across institutional silos. By addressing the first three challenges, we hope to help clinicians and public health policymakers make data-informed decisions during infectious disease crises while simultaneously providing opportunities for other public health researchers to augment their own efforts in transmissibility estimation and epidemic forecasting by harnessing expected products from our proposed research. Meanwhile, by addressing the fourth challenge, we hope to help new scholars form meaningful collaborations both with pioneers in comp epi and with each other, while simultaneously promoting growth of the field as we move forward.


Issue Date FY	Funding FY	Legal Entity Name	Legal Entity Address	Legal Entity City	Legal Entity State	Legal Entity Zip Code	Legal Entity COUNTY	Legal Entity COUNTRY	Assistance Listing	Award Code	Budget Year	Action Date	Action Type	Action Amount

Issue Date FY: 2026 ( Subtotal = $0 )
2026	2025	CHILDREN'S HOSPITAL CORPORATION, THE	300 LONGWOOD AVE	BOSTON	MA	02115	SUFFOLK	USA	Biomedical Research and Research Training	000	4	12/2/2025	NON-COMPETING CONTINUATION	$0
														Subtotal = $0

Issue Date FY: 2025 ( Subtotal = $3,097 )
2025	2025	CHILDREN'S HOSPITAL CORPORATION, THE	300 LONGWOOD AVE	BOSTON	MA	02115	SUFFOLK	USA	Biomedical Research and Research Training	003	4	9/12/2025	NON-COMPETING CONTINUATION	$442,337
2025	2024	CHILDREN'S HOSPITAL CORPORATION, THE	300 LONGWOOD AVE	BOSTON	MA	02115	SUFFOLK	USA	Biomedical Research and Research Training	000	3	3/10/2025	NON-COMPETING CONTINUATION	$0
2025	2024	CHILDREN'S HOSPITAL CORPORATION, THE	300 LONGWOOD AVE	BOSTON	MA	02115	SUFFOLK	USA	Biomedical Research and Research Training	002	3	9/4/2025	NON-COMPETING CONTINUATION	$0
2025	2024	CHILDREN'S HOSPITAL CORPORATION, THE	300 LONGWOOD AVE	BOSTON	MA	02115	SUFFOLK	USA	Biomedical Research and Research Training	001	3	7/15/2025	NON-COMPETING CONTINUATION	-$439,240
														Subtotal = $3,097

Issue Date FY: 2024 ( Subtotal = $442,337 )
2024	2024	CHILDREN'S HOSPITAL CORPORATION, THE	300 LONGWOOD AVE	BOSTON	MA	02115	SUFFOLK	USA	Biomedical Research and Research Training	000	3	8/14/2024	NON-COMPETING CONTINUATION	$442,337
														Subtotal = $442,337

Issue Date FY: 2023 ( Subtotal = $442,337 )
2023	2023	CHILDREN'S HOSPITAL CORPORATION, THE	300 LONGWOOD AVE	BOSTON	MA	02115	SUFFOLK	USA	Biomedical Research and Research Training	000	2	9/8/2023	NON-COMPETING CONTINUATION	$442,337
														Subtotal = $442,337

Issue Date FY: 2022 ( Subtotal = $442,337 )
2022	2022	CHILDREN'S HOSPITAL CORPORATION, THE	300 LONGWOOD AVE	BOSTON	MA	02115	SUFFOLK	USA	Biomedical Research and Research Training	000	1	8/19/2022	NEW	$442,337
														Subtotal = $442,337

Grand Total All Awards = $1,330,108

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Digital data streams and machine learning for real-time modeling of vaccine-preventable infectious diseases

Award Number: R35GM146974

ORGANIZATION: NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF GENERAL MEDICAL SCIENCES

OPDIV: NIH

AWARD CLASS: DISCRETIONARY

AWARD ACTIVITY TYPE: SCIENTIFIC/HEALTH RESEARCH (INCLUDES SURVEYS)

PERIOD OF PERFORMANCE START DATE: 09/01/2022

PERIOD OF PERFORMANCE END DATE: 08/31/2027

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