Thursday, September 18, 2025 9/18/2025

Model-based inference and forecasting of co-circulating pathogen dynamics

Award Number: R35GM143029
ORGANIZATION: NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF GENERAL MEDICAL SCIENCES
OPDIV: NIH
AWARD CLASS: DISCRETIONARY
AWARD ACTIVITY TYPE: SCIENTIFIC/HEALTH RESEARCH (INCLUDES SURVEYS)
PERIOD OF PERFORMANCE START DATE: 09/24/2021
PERIOD OF PERFORMANCE END DATE: 06/30/2026

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Model-based inference and forecasting of co-circulating pathogen dynamics - PROJECT SUMMARY Public health faces threats from a multitude of pathogens on an ongoing basis, yet pathogens associated with different diseases are typically compartmentalized with respect to surveillance, management, and research. This compartmentalized approach ignores the many ways that pathogens interact, in some cases leading to the exacerbation of their collective burden on public health. These interactions can be biological (e.g., cross-reactive immunity), behavioral (e.g., prompting adherence to good hygiene), or clinical (e.g., misdiagnosis). Modern, data- driven approaches to mathematical modeling have the potential to resolve the dynamics of co- circulating pathogens by accounting for these interactions. In doing so, modeling also has the potential to improve pathogen-specific disease forecasts by borrowing information across surveillance data for different diseases. To date, this potential remains largely untapped. In this project, I will develop a generalizable framework for modeling the dynamics of co-circulating pathogens. The first component of this framework will use Bayesian hierarchical modeling to fuse mechanistic descriptions of pathogen transmission dynamics with statistical descriptions of surveillance processes, allowing for maximal leveraging of heterogeneous data streams to inform biological inferences. The second component of this framework will involve validating model inferences through forecasts of future disease dynamics. Both components of this framework will involve the use of multiple models that represent competing hypotheses about pathogen interaction, as well as other forms of model uncertainty. This framework will be applied in two settings: mosquito-borne viruses in Brazil and respiratory pathogens in Indiana. In both of these settings, co-circulation of recently emerged and endemic pathogens poses new challenges for surveillance and control activities, making the development of new modeling tools to address these challenges especially timely.


Issue Date FY	Funding FY	Legal Entity Name	Legal Entity Address	Legal Entity City	Legal Entity State	Legal Entity Zip Code	Legal Entity COUNTY	Legal Entity COUNTRY	Assistance Listing	Award Code	Budget Year	Action Date	Action Type	Action Amount

Issue Date FY: 2025 ( Subtotal = $391,250 )
2025	2025	UNIVERSITY OF NOTRE DAME DU LAC	940 GRACE HALL	NOTRE DAME	IN	46556	ST JOSEPH	USA	Biomedical Research and Research Training	000	5	9/9/2025	NON-COMPETING CONTINUATION	$391,250
														Subtotal = $391,250

Issue Date FY: 2024 ( Subtotal = $391,250 )
2024	2024	UNIVERSITY OF NOTRE DAME DU LAC	836 GRACE HALL	NOTRE DAME	IN	46556	ST JOSEPH	USA	Biomedical Research and Research Training	000	4	6/21/2024	NON-COMPETING CONTINUATION	$391,250
														Subtotal = $391,250

Issue Date FY: 2023 ( Subtotal = $391,250 )
2023	2023	UNIVERSITY OF NOTRE DAME DU LAC	940 GRACE HALL	NOTRE DAME	IN	46556	ST JOSEPH	USA	Biomedical Research and Research Training	000	3	7/14/2023	NON-COMPETING CONTINUATION	$391,250
														Subtotal = $391,250

Issue Date FY: 2022 ( Subtotal = $391,250 )
2022	2022	UNIVERSITY OF NOTRE DAME DU LAC	940 GRACE HALL	NOTRE DAME	IN	46556	ST JOSEPH	USA	Biomedical Research and Research Training	000	2	8/9/2022	NON-COMPETING CONTINUATION	$391,250
														Subtotal = $391,250

Issue Date FY: 2021 ( Subtotal = $391,250 )
2021	2021	UNIVERSITY OF NOTRE DAME DU LAC	940 GRACE HALL	NOTRE DAME	IN	46556	ST JOSEPH	USA	Biomedical Research and Research Training	000	1	9/23/2021	NEW	$391,250
														Subtotal = $391,250

Grand Total All Awards = $1,956,250

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Model-based inference and forecasting of co-circulating pathogen dynamics

Award Number: R35GM143029

ORGANIZATION: NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF GENERAL MEDICAL SCIENCES

OPDIV: NIH

AWARD CLASS: DISCRETIONARY

AWARD ACTIVITY TYPE: SCIENTIFIC/HEALTH RESEARCH (INCLUDES SURVEYS)

PERIOD OF PERFORMANCE START DATE: 09/24/2021

PERIOD OF PERFORMANCE END DATE: 06/30/2026

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