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Does Tobacco Social Media Marketing Alter Adolescent Risk Perceptions and Use? Longitudinal Data-Adaptive Estimators and Causal Inference to Enhance Understanding

Award Number: R21CA287457
ORGANIZATION: NATIONAL CANCER INSTITUTE
OPDIV: NIH
AWARD CLASS: DISCRETIONARY
AWARD ACTIVITY TYPE: SCIENTIFIC/HEALTH RESEARCH (INCLUDES SURVEYS)
PERIOD OF PERFORMANCE START DATE: 09/25/2023
PERIOD OF PERFORMANCE END DATE: 08/31/2026

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Does Tobacco Social Media Marketing Alter Adolescent Risk Perceptions and Use? Longitudinal Data-Adaptive Estimators and Causal Inference to Enhance Understanding - Project Summary Youth trajectories of tobacco use are of critical importance in the future of public health. Most tobacco use begins in adolescence and adolescents are particularly vulnerable to long-term tobacco use. While cigarette smoking significantly declined among adolescents over the past decade, overall tobacco/nicotine use actually increased by some measures, primarily due to increased rates of use of electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS). These changes in population levels of adolescent tobacco use are of critical importance in predicting tobacco control challenges and opportunities in the next decade. As the scientific debate unfolds regarding ENDS health effects, adolescents nationwide are learning about tobacco products and attempting to rectify conflicting information to create and refine their own beliefs regarding these products. At the same time, youth are increasingly living their lives filtered through social media account participation. Marketers are well aware of this fact and act to influence youth to purchase their products. Tobacco marketers are certainly no exception. Social media marketing is particularly important to examine as it is a prevalent source of adolescent exposure that is amenable to policy change. Social media marketing differs from other forms of marketing in that it exploits participatory facilitation, algorithmic coordination, context- specific promotions, real-world enmeshment, and seamless integration with purchasing opportunities. Although some research has examined this issue, there are important methodological concerns that may lead to flawed or incomplete understanding of the relationships involved and hinder the development of policies or other approaches to reduce the influence of social media marketing on youth ENDS use. We will address limitations in prior research by using both longitudinal data-adaptive, semiparametric estimators and a causal inference approach. We will focus on two risk perceptions: harmfulness and addictiveness. The degree to which risk beliefs act as mediators of the effects of social media marketing on use is unclear. Effective ENDS control strategies for adolescents require a more comprehensive understanding of how attitudes change over time and the potential impact of social media marketing on these changes The Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health (PATH) dataset provides a unique opportunity to examine youth beliefs about tobacco products, marketing exposure, and patterns of tobacco use among adolescents in the United States longitudinally. The current study will examine underutilized, recent Waves to examine the impact of online ENDS marketing on use with longitudinal data-adaptive, semiparametric estimators and to examine risk perceptions as potential mediators explaining the effects of adolescent marketing exposure on ENDS use with a causal inference approach.


Issue Date FY	Funding FY	Legal Entity Name	Legal Entity Address	Legal Entity City	Legal Entity State	Legal Entity Zip Code	Legal Entity COUNTY	Legal Entity COUNTRY	Assistance Listing	Award Code	Budget Year	Action Date	Action Type	Action Amount

Issue Date FY: 2025 ( Subtotal = $0 )
2025	2024	OLD DOMINION UNIVERSITY	HAMPTON BLVD	NORFOLK	VA	23529	NORFOLK CITY	USA	Family Smoking Prevention and Tobacco Control Act Regulatory Research	002	3	8/11/2025	NON-COMPETING CONTINUATION	$0
2025	2024	OLD DOMINION UNIVERSITY	HAMPTON BLVD	NORFOLK	VA	23529	NORFOLK CITY	USA	Family Smoking Prevention and Tobacco Control Act Regulatory Research	000	3	1/8/2025	NON-COMPETING CONTINUATION	$0
2025	2023	OLD DOMINION UNIVERSITY	735 FAIRFAX AVE STE 909	NORFOLK	VA	23507	NORFOLK CITY	USA	Family Smoking Prevention and Tobacco Control Act Regulatory Research	001	1	2/28/2025	NEW	$0
														Subtotal = $0

Issue Date FY: 2024 ( Subtotal = $223,948 )
2024	2024	OLD DOMINION UNIVERSITY	HAMPTON BLVD	NORFOLK	VA	23529	NORFOLK CITY	USA	Family Smoking Prevention and Tobacco Control Act Regulatory Research	002	3	8/13/2024	NON-COMPETING CONTINUATION	$223,948
2024	2023	EASTERN VIRGINIA MEDICAL SCHOOL	735 FAIRFAX AVE STE 909C	NORFOLK	VA	23507	NORFOLK CITY	USA	Family Smoking Prevention and Tobacco Control Act Regulatory Research	003	1	9/26/2024	NEW	$137,564
2024	2023	OLD DOMINION UNIVERSITY	HAMPTON BLVD	NORFOLK	VA	23529	NORFOLK CITY	USA	Family Smoking Prevention and Tobacco Control Act Regulatory Research	004	2	9/26/2024	CHANGE OF GRANTEE / TRAINING INSTITUTION / AWARDING INSTITUTION	-$137,564
2024	2023	EASTERN VIRGINIA MEDICAL SCHOOL	735 FAIRFAX AVE STE 909C	NORFOLK	VA	23507	NORFOLK CITY	USA	Family Smoking Prevention and Tobacco Control Act Regulatory Research	000	1	7/15/2024	NEW	-$174,022
2024	2023	OLD DOMINION UNIVERSITY	HAMPTON BLVD	NORFOLK	VA	23529	NORFOLK CITY	USA	Family Smoking Prevention and Tobacco Control Act Regulatory Research	001	2	7/16/2024	CHANGE OF GRANTEE / TRAINING INSTITUTION / AWARDING INSTITUTION	$174,022
														Subtotal = $223,948

Issue Date FY: 2023 ( Subtotal = $210,480 )
2023	2023	EASTERN VIRGINIA MEDICAL SCHOOL	735 FAIRFAX AVE STE 909C	NORFOLK	VA	23507	NORFOLK CITY	USA	Family Smoking Prevention and Tobacco Control Act Regulatory Research	000	1	9/25/2023	NEW	$210,480
														Subtotal = $210,480

Grand Total All Awards = $434,428

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Does Tobacco Social Media Marketing Alter Adolescent Risk Perceptions and Use? Longitudinal Data-Adaptive Estimators and Causal Inference to Enhance Understanding

Award Number: R21CA287457

ORGANIZATION: NATIONAL CANCER INSTITUTE

OPDIV: NIH

AWARD CLASS: DISCRETIONARY

AWARD ACTIVITY TYPE: SCIENTIFIC/HEALTH RESEARCH (INCLUDES SURVEYS)

PERIOD OF PERFORMANCE START DATE: 09/25/2023

PERIOD OF PERFORMANCE END DATE: 08/31/2026

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