Project Summary/Abstract
The pandemic of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is currently on-going with massive numbers
of cases and high morbidity and mortality. The disease is caused by a novel coronavirus which is now
named severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Effective control strategies for
COVID-19 rely on a deep understanding of the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2. Meanwhile,
policy making in the management of the pandemic is significantly impacted by the interaction between
the outbreak development and the economic growth, and there is currently a paucity of research
examining such interaction. The overall objective of this proposal is to establish a new mathematical and
computational modeling framework to investigate the transmission and spread of SARS-CoV-2 in the US
based on available data, and to analyze the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on public health and the
economy. To achieve this objective, the team will pursue two specific aims: (1) Modeling the spread and
health impact of COVID-19; (2) Modeling the economic impact of COVID-19. The proposed research is
significant because it is expected to advance the current understanding of COVID-19 transmission
dynamics, to provide realistic prediction on the development and long-term evolution of the disease
outbreak, and to quantify the interaction between epidemiological and economic factors under the impact
of COVID-19, all of which are important for the control and management of the pandemic. The approach
is innovative in the development of a sophisticated mathematical and computational framework that
incorporates both the epidemic and economic aspects of COVID-19, and in the integration of rigorous
mathematical modeling and analysis, intensive numerical simulation, and realistic epidemic data. The
project represents an interdisciplinary collaboration among an applied and computational mathematician
with long-term interest in infectious disease modeling (Wang), an epidemiologist and health scientist with
extensive working experiences at CDC (Heath), a business and management professor with a
background in public heath (Mullen), and a data analyst and geographic information system expert (Mix).
The success of this project will not only build a solid knowledge base for the complex transmission
dynamics of COVID-19, but also provide important guidelines for the government and the public health
administration in pandemic management and policy development.