ABSTRACT
Cancers have readily-defined characteristics often referred to as “hallmarks”. Nevertheless, the question of
how the sequence of cancer development progresses -- from normal tissue to carcinogen-damaged tissue to
precancerous lesion and finally to malignant tumors – remains unanswered. Classically, these steps are
attributed to the sequential acquisition of discrete genetic events such as driver mutations. However, in
humans, the clonal dynamics governing cancer development happen over years, remain largely invisible even
in model systems, and have been difficult to link to specific molecular changes. This rubric fails to account for
clonal dynamics in the context of tissue architecture and fails to explain the consequences of large numbers of
mutations present in normal tissue. Our long-term goal is to apply ecological and evolutionary principles to
cancer initiation and development in order to test whether the hallmarks of cancer are acquired in three
distinct phases each with distinct selective pressures and manifestations of cell competition and
cooperation.
Nowhere is this more accessible to investigation than in skin. For skin carcinomas, the most important
carcinogen is ultraviolet radiation. Cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma (cuSCC) has the most tractable and
clinically well-characterized progression sequence of any human cancer, from normal tissue, to a distinct
precancerous lesion (the actinic keratosis), to invasive carcinoma. Therefore, it is ideal for establishing an eco-
evolutionary paradigm of cancer initiation and development with respect to modelling clonal dynamics, genetic
composition and the dynamics of molecular traits.
Our central hypothesis is that cancer initiation and development occurs in three phases, each with specific
and recognizable clonal dynamics. In the first phase, tissue disruption from UV exposure provides a permissive
environment where extrinsically-driven mechanisms allow for some clones to experience unusually long runs of
cell division and turnover. This greatly increases the variance among clone sizes with larger clones
accumulating greater heritable variation. The second phase sees the emergence of intrinsic mechanisms
where mutations that confer a competitive advantage allow for clonal selection with directed expansion of
some clones at the expense of others. In the third phase, one or several clones escape local tissue control,
acquire a distinct fitness function, and form tumors. Within the emerging tumor microenvironments, selection
pressures will promote ecological and molecular diversification of the malignant clade (or clades). Our
approach uses novel combinations of serial in-vivo quantitative imaging, mathematical modeling, and deep
single-cell molecular interrogation to discern the ecological and molecular drivers of clonal dynamics, cell-to-
cell competition and cooperation, and clonal evolution, producing a fundamentally unprecedented view of
cancer initiation.