Malaria & Migration: Assessing Local Malaria Change near Migrant Communities in Panama - Despite recent regional control efforts that aimed to eliminate malaria by 2022, reduction in malaria transmission has stalled in Central America and in many cases is on the rise. In the Darien and Guna Yala regions of Panama, an extreme increase in international migration combined with potential changes in malaria vectors and vector ecology have coincided with increasing cases detected in the country. The majority of new malaria cases are occurring in indigenous communities, particularly near areas where transiting migrants are housed. These events – migration through Panama, temporary housing in indigenous communities, introduction of new malaria vectors, and increasing malaria rates – are likely inter-related and require further investigation to explain these new dynamics of malaria transmission. The overall goal of this project is to support interdisciplinary training and research experience in the areas of vector-borne disease epidemiology, migration, and environmental health, including the role of seasonal/temporal climate variation and land use land cover change influencing disease ecology (LULC). The applicant’s long-term career goal is to become an independent academic researcher with expertise in vector borne disease and One Health, with specific expertise in quantifying the effects of coupled land-climate changes on disease development. The proposed fellowship will support mentored training in (1) the assessment of human behavior with case-control survey design, data collection, and processing, (2) the application of entomological collections, morphological and genetic identification, and data processing, and (3) the development of Bayesian spatial-temporal models to assess local malaria risk. The described training will include coursework, one-on-one mentoring, fieldwork, extensive application of statistical methods, participation in workshops/conferences, and the publication of a minimum of 3 first authored manuscripts. Two research aims are proposed for this application: (1) evaluating the effect of temporary migrant housing on malaria transmission in local communities using a longitudinal case-control study design; and (2) conduct mosquito collections to characterize the composition and distribution of vector species within communities with and without transiting migrants. Both aims will employ Bayesian models and will assess the role of hydrometeorological and LULC change variables. These aims will test the main hypothesis that migration and vector ecology are contributing to increased malaria transmission in Panama, and that climate and environmental change are impacting this dynamic. The proposed research leverages two externally funded studies that are supporting malaria elimination in Panama, including a longitudinal study to evaluate risk factors associated with elevated malaria risk in the Darien – the proposed study will be a subset of the parent project. Ultimately, the projects proposed in this application will provide critical insight to this new malaria landscape in Panama, and will help to inform malaria control efforts. Further, they will provide the applicant with intersectional training and unique expertise for a career in One Health and vector borne disease epidemiology.
