Wednesday, September 10, 2025 9/10/2025

Casual, Statistical and Mathematical Modeling with Serologic Data

Award Number: U01CA261277
ORGANIZATION: NATIONAL CANCER INSTITUTE
OPDIV: NIH
AWARD CLASS: COOPERATIVE AGREEMENT
AWARD ACTIVITY TYPE: SCIENTIFIC/HEALTH RESEARCH (INCLUDES SURVEYS)
PERIOD OF PERFORMANCE START DATE: 09/30/2020
PERIOD OF PERFORMANCE END DATE: 08/31/2025

Group Awards By:

View Award Description

Casual, Statistical and Mathematical Modeling with Serologic Data - We will develop methods to enhance the design and analysis of serologic studies of populations with respect to COVID-19, including methods that may be generalized in the future to address challenges raised by other seasonal diseases (such as influenza) and newly emerging diseases. In addition, we will use serologic data in innovative ways to underpin mathematical models that can project population-level trends. Early serosurveys using convenience samples of the population and serologic assays with variable and often uncertain sensitivity and specificity were heavily criticized, for unrepresentativeness and inadequate accounting for test characteristics, resulting in bias and overconfidence (unduly narrow confidence bounds). Aim 1 will develop methods for valid inference of seroprevalence, specifically by (a) accounting for biased sampling, (b) accounting for imperfect tests, and (c) developing and testing a novel approach to snowball sampling employing serologic tests to enhance outbreak detection and contact tracing. Valid comparisons that assess seroprotection—whether, how much, and how long an individual is protected by an immune response to a COVID-19 infection (specifically, by antibodies) against reinfection—rely on adequate control for confounding, an issue that arises in multiple ways specific to seroprotection studies. Likewise, waning of seroprotection may be inferred in error if studies are not carefully designed and analyzed. The unprecedented efforts to develop detailed serologic and systems serologic data sets provide new forms of data that can be leveraged to better inform these inferences. Aim 2 will develop a suite of methods to enhance causal inference in seroprotection studies, including (a) sample size and power calculations; and (b) improved exploitation of serological data to reduce biases due to confounding and risk compensation. Aim 3 will develop new mathematical modeling approaches and apply them to quantify the likely reduction in the herd immunity threshold for COVID-19 due to various forms of risk heterogeneity and assortativeness in mixing. Aim 4 will develop models of COVID-19 transmission that accommodate emerging evidence about the duration and nature of immunity to infection, shedding, and symptoms, to obtain estimates of how illness attack rates will differ under varying assumptions about the progress of immunity. Aim 5 will develop transmission models to assess optimal cohorting arrangements in congregate facilities (eg prisons and nursing homes), with special attention to the nature of immunity required for these arrangements to be beneficial. Finally, vaccine supplies may be initially limited, necessitating efficient use of them. Aim 6 will investigate the use of serologic data in combination with other types of data to optimize allocation of scarce vaccines.


Issue Date FY	Funding FY	Legal Entity Name	Legal Entity Address	Legal Entity City	Legal Entity State	Legal Entity Zip Code	Legal Entity COUNTY	Legal Entity COUNTRY	Assistance Listing	Award Code	Budget Year	Action Date	Action Type	Action Amount

Issue Date FY: 2025 ( Subtotal = $0 )
2025	2023	HARVARD COLLEGE PRESIDENT & FELLOWS OF	677 HUNTINGTON AVE	BOSTON	MA	02115	SUFFOLK	USA	Cancer Detection and Diagnosis Research	000	2	10/16/2024	EXTENSION WITH OR WITHOUT FUNDS	$0
2025	2023	HARVARD COLLEGE PRESIDENT & FELLOWS OF	677 HUNTINGTON AVE	BOSTON	MA	02115	SUFFOLK	USA	Cancer Detection and Diagnosis Research	001	2	11/4/2024	EXTENSION WITH OR WITHOUT FUNDS	$0
2025	2023	HARVARD COLLEGE PRESIDENT & FELLOWS OF	677 HUNTINGTON AVE	BOSTON	MA	02115	SUFFOLK	USA	Cancer Detection and Diagnosis Research	003	2	4/7/2025	EXTENSION WITH OR WITHOUT FUNDS	$0
2025	2023	HARVARD COLLEGE PRESIDENT & FELLOWS OF	677 HUNTINGTON AVE	BOSTON	MA	02115	SUFFOLK	USA	Cancer Detection and Diagnosis Research	002	2	3/27/2025	EXTENSION WITH OR WITHOUT FUNDS	$0
														Subtotal = $0

Issue Date FY: 2024 ( Subtotal = $0 )
2024	2023	HARVARD COLLEGE PRESIDENT & FELLOWS OF	677 HUNTINGTON AVE	BOSTON	MA	02115	SUFFOLK	USA	Cancer Detection and Diagnosis Research	000	2	10/18/2023	EXTENSION WITH OR WITHOUT FUNDS	$0
2024	2023	HARVARD COLLEGE PRESIDENT & FELLOWS OF	677 HUNTINGTON AVE	BOSTON	MA	02115	SUFFOLK	USA	Cancer Detection and Diagnosis Research	002	2	6/24/2024	EXTENSION WITH OR WITHOUT FUNDS	$692,764
2024	2020	HARVARD COLLEGE PRESIDENT & FELLOWS OF	677 HUNTINGTON AVE	BOSTON	MA	02115	SUFFOLK	USA	Cancer Detection and Diagnosis Research	001	1	6/24/2024	NEW	-$692,764
														Subtotal = $0

Issue Date FY: 2023 ( Subtotal = $1,151,877 )
2023	2023	HARVARD COLLEGE PRESIDENT & FELLOWS OF	677 HUNTINGTON AVE	BOSTON	MA	02115	SUFFOLK	USA	Cancer Detection and Diagnosis Research	000	2	6/2/2023	EXTENSION WITH OR WITHOUT FUNDS	$1,151,877
2023	2020	HARVARD COLLEGE PRESIDENT & FELLOWS OF	677 HUNTINGTON AVE	BOSTON	MA	02115	SUFFOLK	USA	Cancer Detection and Diagnosis Research	001	1	6/19/2023	NEW	$0
														Subtotal = $1,151,877

Issue Date FY: 2022 ( Subtotal = $0 )
2022	2020	PRESIDENT AND FELLOWS OF HARVARD COLLEGE	677 HUNTINGTON AVE	BOSTON	MA	02115	SUFFOLK	USA	Cancer Detection and Diagnosis Research	000	1	2/14/2022	NEW	$0
2022	2020	HARVARD COLLEGE PRESIDENT & FELLOWS OF	677 HUNTINGTON AVE	BOSTON	MA	02115	SUFFOLK	USA	Cancer Detection and Diagnosis Research	001	1	9/14/2022	NEW	$0
														Subtotal = $0

Issue Date FY: 2021 ( Subtotal = $0 )
2021	2020	PRESIDENT AND FELLOWS OF HARVARD COLLEGE	677 HUNTINGTON AVE	BOSTON	MA	02115	SUFFOLK	USA	Cancer Detection and Diagnosis Research	000	1	10/28/2020	NEW	$0
														Subtotal = $0

Issue Date FY: 2020 ( Subtotal = $1,695,073 )
2020	2020	PRESIDENT AND FELLOWS OF HARVARD COLLEGE	677 HUNTINGTON AVE	BOSTON	MA	02115	SUFFOLK	USA	Cancer Detection and Diagnosis Research	000	1	9/23/2020	NEW	$1,695,073
														Subtotal = $1,695,073

Grand Total All Awards = $2,846,950

Top

All Categories

About

Search

Reports

Data Submission

Award Information

Casual, Statistical and Mathematical Modeling with Serologic Data

Award Number: U01CA261277

ORGANIZATION: NATIONAL CANCER INSTITUTE

OPDIV: NIH

AWARD CLASS: COOPERATIVE AGREEMENT

AWARD ACTIVITY TYPE: SCIENTIFIC/HEALTH RESEARCH (INCLUDES SURVEYS)

PERIOD OF PERFORMANCE START DATE: 09/30/2020

PERIOD OF PERFORMANCE END DATE: 08/31/2025

Federal Websites

Department of Health & Human Services

HHS Operating Divisions

HHS Staff Divisions

Download A Document Viewer