PROJECT SUMMARY
This goal of this project is to create a unique and comprehensive research repository of aging trajectory da-
tasets, related resources, and analytic methods that can be used to answer new and important questions in
aging and related sciences. Specifically, by harmonizing and merging multiple data sets this project will gener-
ate the data infrastructure needed to understand change over time in care settings, geriatric syndromes, physi-
cal functioning, and shared risk factors at multiple levels (patient, provider, community, healthcare system, and
society) and across multiple domains (biological, behavioral, sociocultural, and physical/built environments)
including chronic conditions and history of acute illness such as COVID-19, exposure to air pollution, neighbor-
hood socioeconomic, and health care system factors (Aim 1). Analytic strategies will be developed for user-
defined cohorts and their propensity score-matched controls, e.g., older adults who were living with chronic
conditions including Alzheimer's disease and related dementias (ADRD), diabetes, heart failure, end-stage re-
nal disease, metastatic cancer, and HIV. State-of-the-art analytic methods are used to identify patterns of ag-
ing trajectories (care setting, geriatric syndromes, physical functioning) experienced by older adults during the
final years of life and their association with shared risk factors and distal outcomes (Aim 2). From the assem-
bled trajectory file in Aim 1, cohorts are derived by aligning an originating index time such as age cutoff point
and time at diagnosis (e.g., ADRD, stroke, chronic kidney disease). Both a model-based approach and ma-
chine learning algorithms are then used to discover multilevel and potentially interactive predictors of trajecto-
ries (e.g., rapid functional decline in independent living beneficiaries) and specific outcomes (e.g., respiratory
ventilator usage among Medicare beneficiaries diagnosed with COVID-19) (Aim 3). The unique resources are
then shared to disseminate resources including datasets, documentation, source code, and methodology (Aim
4). At the end of this project, the research infrastructure to investigate the relationship between shared risk
factors and aging trajectories will be ready to use and replicate, giving investigators unprecedented ability to
solve new challenges in aging science. This will allow researchers to understand the underlying processes and
systems associated with reversible periods of disability across care settings, and interventions that may be
used to support recovery of function and reduction of geriatric syndromes including cognitive decline, for the
purpose of reducing burdensome care transitions, and maintenance of functional independence. This project
will also create the resources and methods needed to evaluate the impact of innovations and interventions im-
plemented at the patient, provider, community, healthcare system, and society/policy levels to improve care
quality and outcomes for older adults.