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Early-Life Residence in Mortgage-Disinvested Neighborhoods and Mortality: A Novel Analysis of HOLC Grades and IPUMS MLP-Numident Data

Award Number: R21AG093550
ORGANIZATION: NATIONAL INSTITUTE ON AGING
OPDIV: NIH
AWARD CLASS: DISCRETIONARY
AWARD ACTIVITY TYPE: SCIENTIFIC/HEALTH RESEARCH (INCLUDES SURVEYS)
PERIOD OF PERFORMANCE START DATE: 09/01/2026
PERIOD OF PERFORMANCE END DATE: 08/31/2028

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Early-Life Residence in Mortgage-Disinvested Neighborhoods and Mortality: A Novel Analysis of HOLC Grades and IPUMS MLP-Numident Data - PROJECT SUMMARY This project examines how early-life exposure to mortgage disinvestment in the 1930s or HOLC (Home Owners’ Loan Corporation) grading (when it began) and mortgage-disinvestment duration are associated with mortality among the 1930-1940 birth cohort. Aggregate-level studies find an association between a neighborhood’s historical HOLC Grade D status (when it was illegal) and the mortality of its current residents. However, most people living in these historically disinvested areas were not alive when HOLC grading was legal and thus not exposed to it. Formerly HOLC Grade D neighborhoods also have been transformed by other factors since the 1930s (e.g., urban renewal, gentrification). Almost no research on the mortality consequences of legal HOLC grading: (a) examines individual-level data; (b) considers early-life exposure to legal HOLC grading in focal and adjacent areas; or (c) considers duration of exposure to HOLC D Graded areas across the life course. Researchers are hampered because individual geographic locations (i.e., enumeration districts (EDs)) from the 1940 and 1950 U.S. decennial censuses are not easily mappable. While digital ED maps exist in 1940 for some cities, they do not contain EDs with large apartments or group quarters and are based on grayscale maps even though original ED maps are in color, which impedes researchers from precisely measuring individual exposure to HOLC grades. Digital ED map files for 1950 do not exist. We propose to overcome these limitations in this exploratory R21 project. We focus on New York City (NYC) because it was the nation’s largest city in 1940, making it an ideal pilot study. First, we create accurate 1940 ED map files for all NYC EDs; new 1950 ED map files for NYC and specific locations of individuals linked between 1940 and 1950 censuses (in 1174 non-NYC counties); construct HOLC scores based upon the grades for those 1940 and 1950 ED locations; and construct a novel adjacent ED HOLC measure in 1940 (Aim 1). Second, we link HOLC scores to: (a) IPUMS MLP-Numident (MLP) individual date-of-death data (between 1940 and 2007) from the National Archives’ Social Security Numident file and (b) individuals’ 1940 and 1950 U.S. Census records (Aim 2). We also calculate end-of-life HOLC scores for residence at the time of death from MLP (Aim 2). Third, we estimate models predicting age at death as a function of early-life focal HOLC scores, adjacent HOLC scores, and HOLC exposure duration, accounting for the spatial autocorrelation of HOLC scores and outmigration selectivity (Aim 3). The proposed project documents whether 1930s legal HOLC grading associated with historical mortgage disinvestment in early life and HOLC-grade exposure over the life course are associated with individual-level mortality. It will generate novel, public-use data, and the methodology can be used in a future R01 application for all HOLC-appraised cities lacking 1940 and 1950 ED maps. Knowledge generated from this work will help health practitioners and public health professionals identify populations living in mortgage-disinvested neighborhoods who may be at elevated risk of premature mortality.


Issue Date FY	Funding FY	Legal Entity Name	Legal Entity Address	Legal Entity City	Legal Entity State	Legal Entity Zip Code	Legal Entity COUNTY	Legal Entity COUNTRY	Assistance Listing	Award Code	Budget Year	Action Date	Action Type	Action Amount

Issue Date FY: 2026 ( Subtotal = $452,409 )
2026	2026	RESEARCH FOUNDATION FOR THE STATE UNIVERSITY OF NEW YORK, THE	1400 WASHINGTON AVE	ALBANY	NY	12222	ALBANY	USA	Aging Research	000	1	8/28/2026	NEW	$452,409
														Subtotal = $452,409

Grand Total All Awards = $452,409

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Early-Life Residence in Mortgage-Disinvested Neighborhoods and Mortality: A Novel Analysis of HOLC Grades and IPUMS MLP-Numident Data

Award Number: R21AG093550

ORGANIZATION: NATIONAL INSTITUTE ON AGING

OPDIV: NIH

AWARD CLASS: DISCRETIONARY

AWARD ACTIVITY TYPE: SCIENTIFIC/HEALTH RESEARCH (INCLUDES SURVEYS)

PERIOD OF PERFORMANCE START DATE: 09/01/2026

PERIOD OF PERFORMANCE END DATE: 08/31/2028

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