ABSTRACT
COVID-19 pandemic-related stressors have altered Americans’ daily lives, but variation in the effects on
emotional well-being cannot be determined from existing studies because most studies either have used cross-
sectional designs or are based on longitudinal designs that are limited to short duration follow-ups post-height of
the pandemic. Pandemic-related external stressors, such as economic hardships, job demands, social
distancing, and health concerns can threaten well-being, but prospective pre-pandemic measures are critical to
establishing heterogeneity in trajectories of emotional well-being. This study will longitudinally assess
heterogeneity in trajectories of emotional well-being among adults in the Toledo Adolescent Relationships Study
(TARS) - a prospective population-based study that interviewed racially/ethnically diverse adults from
adolescence into adulthood over a twenty-year span. The data include six pre-pandemic interviews, one
pandemic interview, and are currently in the field for a post-height of the pandemic interview (Summer 2022).
Using the life course perspective and the stress process model to frame expectations, we will assess the extent
to which pandemic-related stressors and prospective pre-pandemic strengths and vulnerabilities shaped
emotional well-being during the pandemic and may carry over to affect emotional well-being post-pandemic.
Findings will be significant by addressing how pandemic-related stressors have affected individuals’ emotional
well-being and will provide insights regarding which individuals in which contexts are most at risk for poorer well-
being and adverse outcomes. Understanding variation in responses to the pandemic has implications for
developing potential mental health interventions for this and future public health crises. The working hypothesis
is that pandemic-related stressors negatively affect emotional well-being; yet there is heterogeneity in responses
to these challenges, and some adults will demonstrate resilience. Some potential trajectory groups may include
(aim 1): no changes in emotional well-being over time (stable), low effects over time (stable), moderate effects
increasing during the pandemic (unstable), and high effects over time (stable). Prospective data, spanning two
decades, are innovative and necessary for establishing distinct groups and estimating who face greater risk of
being in a higher distress group. Using fixed-effects and trajectory modeling, we will assess how effects differ by
demographic factors (e.g., gender, parenthood status) and pandemic-stressors (aim 2). We will conduct in-depth
phone interviews with racially/ethnically diverse adults whom we previously interviewed during the pandemic;
the rationale is to identify subjective understandings of factors associated with declines and resilience in well-
being (aim 2). The extent to which individuals adapt depends on the degree to which they face severe pandemic-
related stressors, but also the broader context of their lives and prior strengths and vulnerabilities. The BGSU
research environment will be enhanced by enriching the experiences of students in all phases of this project.
The project provides a unique and timed opportunity to examine how the pandemic has reshaped lives.
