Project Abstract
The conditions in which men and women have children are widely studied, with two distinct bodies of research:
(1) predicting who has births and the characteristics of those births, and (2) analyzing how birth characteristics
influence later outcomes. Both areas are highly dependent on survey data, with individuals retrospectively
reporting about their births. Birth characteristics range from subjective conception factors (such as relationship
status or whether the pregnancy was intended) to behaviors during pregnancy (such as smoking or prenatal
care) to more objective data (such as gestational age or birth weight). These characteristics are then used as
either dependent or independent variables to identify the predictors and consequences, respectively, of various
birth characteristics. Rarely, though, have researchers considered whether this retrospectively-reported data –
data produced by asking individuals to recall statuses, feelings, behaviors, and details of past events – is
reliable. If input data is flawed, then research using such data risks drawing inaccurate conclusions. The limited
research directly investigating retrospectively-reported fertility survey data has indeed found problems – some
men’s births are not reported at all, and a substantial minority of young women change how they
retrospectively characterize the intendedness of a birth when asked about the same birth at different points in
time. This suggests that retrospective reports for other birth characteristics may also be prone to
inconsistencies over time. The current project thus investigates an important but untested assumption: that
mothers and fathers are consistent in how they report about past fertility. The project tests this assumption with
the only two longitudinal datasets (the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health and the
Toledo Adolescent Relationships Study) that collect full fertility histories at multiple waves, which means that
individuals have multiple opportunities to report characteristics for the same birth(s). The proposed research
will accomplish two goals. First, it will establish whether respondents report consistently about their births,
investigating a wide range of birth measures. This will a) identify which characteristics are most likely to be
reported consistently, b) leverage differences in surveying to determine how survey frequency and structure
influence consistency, and c) establish whether there is systematic variation in who reports consistently.
Second, this project will answer a more fundamental question: does inconsistency affect the conclusions drawn
about the relationship between birth characteristics, on the one hand, and potential precursors and outcomes,
on the other? In parallel analyses using birth characteristics as either the dependent or independent variable –
and varying the waves from which these characteristics are drawn – models will be compared to identify
whether the associations between precursors/outcomes and birth characteristics are sensitive to inconsistent
reports. This fits squarely within the mission of the NICHD Population Dynamics Branch Fertility and Infertility
Program and has both practical and substantive implications for fertility research and public health programs.