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Adding a Module for Alzheimer/Dementia Outcomes to a Microsimulation Model of Obesity/Diet/Physical Activity Interventions.

Award Number: R01HD087257
ORGANIZATION: NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF CHILD HEALTH AND HUMAN DEVELOPMENT
OPDIV: NIH
AWARD CLASS: DISCRETIONARY
AWARD ACTIVITY TYPE: SCIENTIFIC/HEALTH RESEARCH (INCLUDES SURVEYS)

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Abstract/Project Summary Proposed Supplement: We will add a new module on Alzheimer's Disease and Related Dementias (ADRD) to the microsimulation model developed in the parent grant. Our current project studies how interventions on risk factors like obesity, diet, and physical activity affect incidence and prevalence of chronic conditions like hypertension, diabetes, or stroke. These health conditions in turn affect health and long-term care needs, quality of life, disability, and mortality. So far, our model does not include any measures related to ADRD. However, many of the conditions and pathways modeled in the parent grant have also been implicated in ADRD. The supplement will add ADRD as an additional outcome dimension. Adding ADRD necessitates some restructuring and incorporating other data, but is a natural extension using the same architecture as the original project. Our specific aims for the supplement are to: 1. Incorporate cognition and ADRD measures from the Health and Retirement Survey 2. Validate the new ADRD modules and assess statistical uncertainty 3. Expand our visualization tool for ADRD outcomes 4. Simulate population outcomes related to ADRD and predict burden of ADRD with and without interventions targeting diet, physical activity, or obesity. Innovations of this supplement will be: 1) the first microsimulation model to link population interventions in diet/physical activity/obesity to ADRD outcomes; 2) the first microsimulation model on ADRD that assesses statistical uncertainty for statistical inference beyond point estimates. Aims of Current parent grant: The prevalence of obesity has increased dramatically over the last three decades, as has its corresponding burden of disease. Much of that burden is preventable. There is no shortage of suggestions how to address the obesity epidemic – the gap is how to assess the likely long-run effects of intervention. As the ultimate outcomes of interest (prevention of chronic illness at the population level) will not manifest for many years following an intervention, mathematical models like the one we develop in this project are needed to integrate the information from multiple sources. Without good simulation models, it is difficult – if not impossible – to make predictions of socially important outcomes of prevention efforts, most of which are many years in the future and beyond the scope of clinical trials. The specific aims are: (1) Develop, test and validate a dynamic microsimulation modeling platform that captures individual and social dynamics of diet/nutrition, physical activity, and BMI; (2) Use the platform to predict health, social and economic outcomes for the coming decades; (3) Assess the outcomes consequences of health policies in multiple areas (food taxes and subsidies, labeling laws, bariatric surgery) at reducing social harms; (4) Provide an open version to researchers and policy makers to conduct their own calculations.


Issue Date FY	Funding FY	Legal Entity Name	Legal Entity Address	Legal Entity City	Legal Entity State	Legal Entity Zip Code	Legal Entity COUNTY	Legal Entity COUNTRY	Assistance Listing	Award Code	Budget Year	Action Date	Action Type	Action Amount

Issue Date FY: 2023 ( Subtotal = -$1,665 )
2023	2020	THE RAND CORPORATION	1776 MAIN ST	SANTA MONICA	CA	90401	LOS ANGELES	USA	Child Health and Human Development Extramural Research	000	5	5/15/2023	SUPPLEMENT FOR EXPANSION	-$1,665
														Subtotal = -$1,665

Issue Date FY: 2022 ( Subtotal = -$4,826 )
2022	2020	RAND CORP	1776 MAIN ST	SANTA MONICA	CA	90401	LOS ANGELES	USA	Child Health and Human Development Extramural Research	000	5	9/28/2022	SUPPLEMENT FOR EXPANSION	-$4,826
														Subtotal = -$4,826

Issue Date FY: 2021 ( Subtotal = $0 )
2021	2020	RAND CORPORATION, THE	1776 MAIN ST	SANTA MONICA	CA	90401	LOS ANGELES	USA	Child Health and Human Development Extramural Research	000	5	1/7/2021	SUPPLEMENT FOR EXPANSION	$0
														Subtotal = $0

Issue Date FY: 2020 ( Subtotal = $938,546 )
2020	2020	RAND CORPORATION, THE	1776 MAIN ST	SANTA MONICA	CA	90401	LOS ANGELES	USA	Child Health and Human Development Extramural Research	001	5	8/3/2020	SUPPLEMENT FOR EXPANSION	$488,963
2020	2020	RAND CORPORATION, THE	1776 MAIN ST	SANTA MONICA	CA	90401	LOS ANGELES	USA	Child Health and Human Development Extramural Research	000	5	3/2/2020	NON-COMPETING CONTINUATION	$449,583
														Subtotal = $938,546

Issue Date FY: 2019 ( Subtotal = $449,583 )
2019	2019	RAND CORPORATION, THE	1776 MAIN ST	SANTA MONICA	CA	90401	LOS ANGELES	USA	Child Health and Human Development Extramural Research	000	4	3/4/2019	NON-COMPETING CONTINUATION	$449,583
														Subtotal = $449,583

Issue Date FY: 2018 ( Subtotal = $499,859 )
2018	2018	RAND CORPORATION, THE	1776 MAIN ST	SANTA MONICA	CA	90401	LOS ANGELES	USA	Child Health and Human Development Extramural Research	001	3	4/26/2018	NON-COMPETING CONTINUATION	$49,986
2018	2018	RAND CORPORATION, THE	1776 MAIN ST	SANTA MONICA	CA	90401	LOS ANGELES	USA	Child Health and Human Development Extramural Research	000	3	2/28/2018	NON-COMPETING CONTINUATION	$449,873
														Subtotal = $499,859

Issue Date FY: 2017 ( Subtotal = $502,869 )
2017	2017	RAND CORPORATION, THE	1776 MAIN ST	SANTA MONICA	CA	90401	LOS ANGELES	USA	Child Health and Human Development Extramural Research	000	2	3/2/2017	NON-COMPETING CONTINUATION	$452,582
2017	2017	RAND CORPORATION, THE	1776 MAIN ST	SANTA MONICA	CA	90401	LOS ANGELES	USA	Child Health and Human Development Extramural Research	001	2	6/15/2017	NON-COMPETING CONTINUATION	$50,287
														Subtotal = $502,869

Issue Date FY: 2016 ( Subtotal = $450,837 )
2016	2016	RAND CORPORATION	1776 MAIN ST	SANTA MONICA	CA	90401	LOS ANGELES	USA	Child Health and Human Development Extramural Research	000	1	5/3/2016	NEW	$450,837
														Subtotal = $450,837

Grand Total All Awards = $2,835,203

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Adding a Module for Alzheimer/Dementia Outcomes to a Microsimulation Model of Obesity/Diet/Physical Activity Interventions.

Award Number: R01HD087257

ORGANIZATION: NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF CHILD HEALTH AND HUMAN DEVELOPMENT

OPDIV: NIH

AWARD CLASS: DISCRETIONARY

AWARD ACTIVITY TYPE: SCIENTIFIC/HEALTH RESEARCH (INCLUDES SURVEYS)

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