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Opioid Use Disorder County Area Prevalence Through Use of Recapture Estimates (OUD CAPTURE)

Award Number: R01DA064086
ORGANIZATION: NATIONAL INSTITUTE ON DRUG ABUSE
OPDIV: NIH
AWARD CLASS: DISCRETIONARY
AWARD ACTIVITY TYPE: SCIENTIFIC/HEALTH RESEARCH (INCLUDES SURVEYS)
PERIOD OF PERFORMANCE START DATE: 09/01/2026
PERIOD OF PERFORMANCE END DATE: 06/30/2031

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Opioid Use Disorder County Area Prevalence Through Use of Recapture Estimates (OUD CAPTURE) - PROJECT SUMMARY / ABSTRACT Opioid use disorder (OUD) remains a critical public health concern in the United States with an estimated 2.08% prevalence among individuals aged 12 and older. This estimate is widely recognized as an underestimate arising from inherent limitations of direct measures such as surveys from the National Survey on Drug Use and Health. Compounding these limitations is the lack of county-level prevalence estimates, which are essential for targeted treatment, resource allocation, and policy development. This project aims to change this status quo by using capture-recapture (CRC) analysis and two state-of-the-art Bayesian modeling techniques to estimate OUD prevalence for the largest number of counties ever attempted with projections to all U.S. counties once recruitment aims are achieved. In Aim 1, we generate estimates of OUD prevalence using CRC, the best available method for estimating the unknown component of the population with OUD, by county and year (most recent available) with linked data from multiple participating states and compare results to Bayesian Benchmark Multiplier (BBM) and Bayesian Integrated Abundance (BIA) models. In Aim 2, we will conduct Bayesian spatial regression analyses to associate OUD prevalence estimates from CRC with publicly available covariates at the county-level to eventually use those coefficients for iteratively projecting OUD prevalence to missing counties. In Aim 3, we focus on recruitment of additional states primarily participating in the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Overdose to Action project. The findings from this project, called Opioid Use Disorder County Area Prevalence Through Use of Recapture Estimates (OUD CAPTURE), will inform targeted public health responses, provide a transferable and adaptable framework for estimating “hidden” and vulnerable populations under various state resource environments, and optimize the nation's considerable state and federal investments in linking administrative datasets.


Issue Date FY	Funding FY	Legal Entity Name	Legal Entity Address	Legal Entity City	Legal Entity State	Legal Entity Zip Code	Legal Entity COUNTY	Legal Entity COUNTRY	Assistance Listing	Award Code	Budget Year	Action Date	Action Type	Action Amount

Issue Date FY: 2026 ( Subtotal = $548,992 )
2026	2026	UNIVERSITY OF KENTUCKY RESEARCH FOUNDATION, THE	500 S LIMESTONE	LEXINGTON	KY	40526	FAYETTE	USA	Drug Use and Addiction Research Programs	000	1	8/31/2026	NEW	$548,992
														Subtotal = $548,992

Grand Total All Awards = $548,992

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Opioid Use Disorder County Area Prevalence Through Use of Recapture Estimates (OUD CAPTURE)

Award Number: R01DA064086

ORGANIZATION: NATIONAL INSTITUTE ON DRUG ABUSE

OPDIV: NIH

AWARD CLASS: DISCRETIONARY

AWARD ACTIVITY TYPE: SCIENTIFIC/HEALTH RESEARCH (INCLUDES SURVEYS)

PERIOD OF PERFORMANCE START DATE: 09/01/2026

PERIOD OF PERFORMANCE END DATE: 06/30/2031

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