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Statistical Models for Estimating Spatial and Sub-population HIV Epidemics

Award Number: R01AI192205
ORGANIZATION: NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF ALLERGY & INFECTIOUS DISEASES
OPDIV: NIH
AWARD CLASS: DISCRETIONARY
AWARD ACTIVITY TYPE: SCIENTIFIC/HEALTH RESEARCH (INCLUDES SURVEYS)
PERIOD OF PERFORMANCE START DATE: 04/02/2026
PERIOD OF PERFORMANCE END DATE: 03/31/2031

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Statistical Models for Estimating Spatial and Sub-population HIV Epidemics - Abstract The global HIV response in 2025 is at a pivotal moment. While progress has been made, 1.3 million new infections occurred in 2023, far exceeding the 2020 target of 500,000. The 2021 Political Declaration on HIV emphasized the unmet prevention and treatment needs among different populations and regions as the key barrier to the 2030 target of fewer than 200,000 new infections. A critical bottleneck hindering an efficient and comprehensive response to HIV control is the lack of precise, actionable information derived from existing data. This proposal aims to address these information gaps to accelerate the fight against the entire HIV epidemic. We will leverage newly available HIV-related data and state-of-the-art methodologies to identify where and for whom the HIV response is lagging, in order to support the design of more effective and efficient policies and programs. Our proposal consists of the following specific aims: 1. Provide longitudinal and spatial estimates of key populations in countries with generalized HIV epidemics in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). 2. Infer HIV incidence for sub-national areas and populations at high risk. 3. Produce freely available, open-source software to implement the proposed methods, and collaborate with global and local organizations to disseminate the methods and findings.


Issue Date FY	Funding FY	Legal Entity Name	Legal Entity Address	Legal Entity City	Legal Entity State	Legal Entity Zip Code	Legal Entity COUNTY	Legal Entity COUNTRY	Assistance Listing	Award Code	Budget Year	Action Date	Action Type	Action Amount

Issue Date FY: 2026 ( Subtotal = $842,720 )
2026	2026	THE PENNSYLVANIA STATE UNIVERSITY	201 OLD MAIN	UNIVERSITY PARK	PA	16802	CENTRE	USA	Allergy and Infectious Diseases Research	000	1	4/2/2026	NEW	$842,720
														Subtotal = $842,720

Grand Total All Awards = $842,720

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Statistical Models for Estimating Spatial and Sub-population HIV Epidemics

Award Number: R01AI192205

ORGANIZATION: NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF ALLERGY & INFECTIOUS DISEASES

OPDIV: NIH

AWARD CLASS: DISCRETIONARY

AWARD ACTIVITY TYPE: SCIENTIFIC/HEALTH RESEARCH (INCLUDES SURVEYS)

PERIOD OF PERFORMANCE START DATE: 04/02/2026

PERIOD OF PERFORMANCE END DATE: 03/31/2031

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