Wednesday, July 16, 2025 7/16/2025

Patterns and predictors of viral suppression: A Big Data approach

Award Number: R01AI164947
ORGANIZATION: NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF ALLERGY & INFECTIOUS DISEASES
OPDIV: NIH
AWARD CLASS: DISCRETIONARY
AWARD ACTIVITY TYPE: SCIENTIFIC/HEALTH RESEARCH (INCLUDES SURVEYS)
PERIOD OF PERFORMANCE START DATE: 06/09/2021
PERIOD OF PERFORMANCE END DATE: 05/31/2026

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Patterns and predictors of viral suppression: A Big Data approach - Abstract Viral suppression is the final stage of the HIV treatment cascade, which serves as the framework for UNAIDS’ 90-90-90 goals. Sustained viral suppression is one of four strategic areas of the “Ending the HIV Epidemic (EtHE): A Plan for America” federal campaign, launched in February 2019, which aims for the reduction of new HIV infections in the United States (US) by 75% and 90% by 2025 and 2030, respectively. The EtHE campaign focuses on 48 US counties and 7 states, including South Carolina (SC). Given the importance of viral suppression in ending the US HIV epidemic, an optimal predictive model of viral status can help clinicians identify those at risk of poor viral control and inform clinical improvements in HIV treatment and care. Various indicators to characterize the longitudinal virologic outcomes have been proposed in the literature such as sustained viral suppression, viral rebound, low-level viraemia (LLV), persistent LLV, and virologic blips. However, some critical gaps still exist in our efforts to develop an optimal predictive model of viral suppression. These gaps include the use of limited indicators of virologic outcomes, limited duration of follow-up, limited data sources, lack of consideration of structural and socioenvironmental data, small or unrepresentative samples of people living with HIV (PLWH), and limited efforts to translate research findings into service-ready tools for clinical use. With NIH support (R01AI127203) since 2017, we have utilized a Big Data approach to examine treatment gaps (e.g., missed opportunities for diagnosis and linkage to care) among a statewide cohort of PLWH in SC. This ongoing research extracted longitudinal electronic health records data from six state agencies and then linked the patient-level data with county-level data (e.g., socioeconomic indicators, number of health care professionals, hospitals, and health care facilities) from multiple publicly available data sources. The resultant integrated database has enabled us to successfully “track” 11,470 patients who were diagnosed with HIV from 2005 to 2016 in SC and identify the gaps in HIV treatment linkage and retention. Based on the experience and accomplishment of the R01AI127203, we submit this application to examine the longitudinal dynamic pattern of viral suppression, develop optimal predictive models of various viral suppression indicators, and translate the models to service-ready tools for clinical use. In the proposed research, we will: 1) continue to “follow” our cohort for another five years (and also expand the cohort by adding PLWH diagnosed between 2016-2020); 2) expand our database to include additional data on critical predictors of viral suppression (e.g., treatment and laboratory data, alcohol and substance use data) from two newly participating statewide data sources; 3) employ artificial intelligence (AI)-based modeling to understand the dynamic viral load patterns and their predictors; and 4) develop and pilot-test a multifactorial decision system for clinical use. The results will enable the identification of PLWH with poor viral control and suggest “when” and “how” to help those PLWH achieve and maintain viral suppression. The proposed research will improve our understanding of the longitudinal dynamics of viral suppression and inform tailored HIV care management among PLWH in SC and beyond.


Issue Date FY	Funding FY	Legal Entity Name	Legal Entity Address	Legal Entity City	Legal Entity State	Legal Entity Zip Code	Legal Entity COUNTY	Legal Entity COUNTRY	Assistance Listing	Award Code	Budget Year	Action Date	Action Type	Action Amount

Issue Date FY: 2025 ( Subtotal = $710,090 )
2025	2025	UNIVERSITY OF SOUTH CAROLINA	1600 HAMPTON ST	COLUMBIA	SC	29208	RICHLAND	USA	Allergy and Infectious Diseases Research	000	5	5/23/2025	NON-COMPETING CONTINUATION	$710,090
														Subtotal = $710,090

Issue Date FY: 2024 ( Subtotal = $710,090 )
2024	2024	UNIVERSITY OF SOUTH CAROLINA	1600 HAMPTON ST	COLUMBIA	SC	29208	RICHLAND	USA	Allergy and Infectious Diseases Research	004	4	5/13/2024	NON-COMPETING CONTINUATION	$710,090
2024	2023	UNIVERSITY OF SOUTH CAROLINA	1600 HAMPTON ST	COLUMBIA	SC	29208	RICHLAND	USA	Allergy and Infectious Diseases Research	003	3	4/22/2024	SUPPLEMENT FOR EXPANSION	$0
2024	2023	UNIVERSITY OF SOUTH CAROLINA	1600 HAMPTON ST	COLUMBIA	SC	29208	RICHLAND	USA	Allergy and Infectious Diseases Research	002	3	4/22/2024	SUPPLEMENT FOR EXPANSION	$0
2024	2022	UNIVERSITY OF SOUTH CAROLINA	1600 HAMPTON ST	COLUMBIA	SC	29208	RICHLAND	USA	Allergy and Infectious Diseases Research	001	2	4/22/2024	SUPPLEMENT FOR EXPANSION	$0
2024	2022	UNIVERSITY OF SOUTH CAROLINA	1600 HAMPTON ST	COLUMBIA	SC	29208	RICHLAND	USA	Allergy and Infectious Diseases Research	000	2	4/22/2024	SUPPLEMENT FOR EXPANSION	$0
														Subtotal = $710,090

Issue Date FY: 2023 ( Subtotal = $1,172,426 )
2023	2023	UNIVERSITY OF SOUTH CAROLINA	1600 HAMPTON ST # 414	COLUMBIA	SC	29208	RICHLAND	USA	Allergy and Infectious Diseases Research	002	3	7/19/2023	SUPPLEMENT FOR EXPANSION	$0
2023	2023	UNIVERSITY OF SOUTH CAROLINA	1600 HAMPTON ST # 414	COLUMBIA	SC	29208	RICHLAND	USA	Allergy and Infectious Diseases Research	001	3	5/31/2023	SUPPLEMENT FOR EXPANSION	$144,581
2023	2023	UNIVERSITY OF SOUTH CAROLINA	1600 HAMPTON ST # 414	COLUMBIA	SC	29208	RICHLAND	USA	Allergy and Infectious Diseases Research	003	3	8/22/2023	SUPPLEMENT FOR EXPANSION	$317,755
2023	2023	UNIVERSITY OF SOUTH CAROLINA	1600 HAMPTON ST # 414	COLUMBIA	SC	29208	RICHLAND	USA	Allergy and Infectious Diseases Research	000	3	5/26/2023	NON-COMPETING CONTINUATION	$710,090
														Subtotal = $1,172,426

Issue Date FY: 2022 ( Subtotal = $1,070,799 )
2022	2022	UNIVERSITY OF SOUTH CAROLINA	1600 HAMPTON ST # 414	COLUMBIA	SC	29208	RICHLAND	USA	Allergy and Infectious Diseases Research	001	2	8/24/2022	SUPPLEMENT FOR EXPANSION	$93,131
2022	2022	UNIVERSITY OF SOUTH CAROLINA	1600 HAMPTON ST # 414	COLUMBIA	SC	29208	RICHLAND	USA	Allergy and Infectious Diseases Research	002	2	8/25/2022	SUPPLEMENT FOR EXPANSION	$267,578
2022	2022	UNIVERSITY OF SOUTH CAROLINA	1600 HAMPTON ST # 414	COLUMBIA	SC	29208	RICHLAND	USA	Allergy and Infectious Diseases Research	000	2	5/16/2022	NON-COMPETING CONTINUATION	$710,090
														Subtotal = $1,070,799

Issue Date FY: 2021 ( Subtotal = $717,540 )
2021	2021	UNIVERSITY OF SOUTH CAROLINA	1600 HAMPTON ST # 414	COLUMBIA	SC	29208	RICHLAND	USA	Allergy and Infectious Diseases Research	000	1	6/9/2021	NEW	$717,540
														Subtotal = $717,540

Grand Total All Awards = $4,380,945

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Patterns and predictors of viral suppression: A Big Data approach

Award Number: R01AI164947

ORGANIZATION: NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF ALLERGY & INFECTIOUS DISEASES

OPDIV: NIH

AWARD CLASS: DISCRETIONARY

AWARD ACTIVITY TYPE: SCIENTIFIC/HEALTH RESEARCH (INCLUDES SURVEYS)

PERIOD OF PERFORMANCE START DATE: 06/09/2021

PERIOD OF PERFORMANCE END DATE: 05/31/2026

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