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Demography of Immigrant Mortality in the United States: Leveraging Novel Census Linkages to Death Records, Earnings Trajectories, and Residential Mobility

Award Number: R01AG089205
ORGANIZATION: NATIONAL INSTITUTE ON AGING
OPDIV: NIH
AWARD CLASS: DISCRETIONARY
AWARD ACTIVITY TYPE: SCIENTIFIC/HEALTH RESEARCH (INCLUDES SURVEYS)
PERIOD OF PERFORMANCE START DATE: 09/01/2024
PERIOD OF PERFORMANCE END DATE: 05/31/2029

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Demography of Immigrant Mortality in the United States: Leveraging Novel Census Linkages to Death Records, Earnings Trajectories, and Residential Mobility - PROJECT SUMMARY The first decades of the 21st century have marked a turning point in US mortality. For decades life expectancy in the United States steadily increased. But since 2010 that progress has stalled and life expectancy trends have increasingly varied across US geography. Factors that have contributed to this stagnation have been a subject of increasing attention. This study helps illuminate how changes in the population composition, individual’s financial circumstances, and changes in the geographic distribution of the US population since 2000 have contributed to these trends. In this project, we study the mortality of the U.S. population in unprecedented detail leveraging innovative individual-level data linkages between census and Social Security records that contain data on over 37 million persons. Between 2000 and 2020, the size and composition of the US population changed substantially. These changes have an impact on estimates of US mortality and life expectancy. To understand how these changes influence estimates of US mortality it is important to assess their role not only nationally but also geographically. At the same time, there is little information on how mortality of the US-born population has changed over time nationally and by place of residence. Our proposed project is designed to overcome the challenges faced by previous research by: (1) including a large sample permitting detailed analyses of mortality by birthplace; (2) avoiding the numerator/denominator mismatch that is present when using vital statistics data and census records; (3) capturing deaths occurring outside of the U.S., which avoids “statistical immortality”; and (4) including the role of earnings trajectories as well as other sociodemographic characteristics (e.g., type of education and household characteristics) to understand life-cycle predictors of US mortality, (5) measuring the subgroup contributions to widening geographic differences in U.S. mortality, and (6) measuring the role of internal mobility on mortality. We will construct a unique individual-level database from census records linked to longitudinal information on death records, earnings, and U.S. place of residence. Aim 1 will provide the first set of life expectancies in the United States by birthplace. We test the roles of sociodemographic characteristics in explaining subgroup differences in mortality. Aim 2 tests the role of earnings trajectories on mortality by subgroup. We test whether downward (upward) earnings trajectories are associated with higher (lower) mortality. We develop a detailed portrait of earnings trajectories by birthplace. Aim 3 identifies the subgroup contributions to widening geographic inequalities in U.S. mortality. We further estimate the role of internal mobility comparing the mortality of movers and non-movers. Given the uniquely large sample and the rich longitudinal data, this project will provide the most comprehensive study of U.S. mortality by subgroup and estimates of life expectancy among the US-born population by geography.


Issue Date FY	Funding FY	Legal Entity Name	Legal Entity Address	Legal Entity City	Legal Entity State	Legal Entity Zip Code	Legal Entity COUNTY	Legal Entity COUNTRY	Assistance Listing	Award Code	Budget Year	Action Date	Action Type	Action Amount

Issue Date FY: 2026 ( Subtotal = $643,033 )
2026	2026	UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS MEDICAL BRANCH AT GALVESTON	301 UNIVERSITY BLVD	GALVESTON	TX	77555	GALVESTON	USA	Aging Research	000	3	5/26/2026	NON-COMPETING CONTINUATION	$643,033
														Subtotal = $643,033

Issue Date FY: 2025 ( Subtotal = $629,407 )
2025	2025	UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS MEDICAL BRANCH AT GALVESTON	301 UNIVERSITY BLVD	GALVESTON	TX	77555	GALVESTON	USA	Aging Research	001	2	9/4/2025	NON-COMPETING CONTINUATION	$51,380
2025	2025	UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS MEDICAL BRANCH AT GALVESTON	301 UNIVERSITY BLVD	GALVESTON	TX	77555	GALVESTON	USA	Aging Research	000	2	5/22/2025	NON-COMPETING CONTINUATION	$578,027
														Subtotal = $629,407

Issue Date FY: 2024 ( Subtotal = $578,235 )
2024	2024	UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS MEDICAL BRANCH AT GALVESTON	301 UNIVERSITY BLVD	GALVESTON	TX	77555	GALVESTON	USA	Aging Research	000	1	8/23/2024	NEW	$578,235
														Subtotal = $578,235

Grand Total All Awards = $1,850,675

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Demography of Immigrant Mortality in the United States: Leveraging Novel Census Linkages to Death Records, Earnings Trajectories, and Residential Mobility

Award Number: R01AG089205

ORGANIZATION: NATIONAL INSTITUTE ON AGING

OPDIV: NIH

AWARD CLASS: DISCRETIONARY

AWARD ACTIVITY TYPE: SCIENTIFIC/HEALTH RESEARCH (INCLUDES SURVEYS)

PERIOD OF PERFORMANCE START DATE: 09/01/2024

PERIOD OF PERFORMANCE END DATE: 05/31/2029

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