Forecasting and Surveillance of Infectious Threats and Epidemics (ForeSITE) - We are submitting a proposal to the Mandatory Component and Optional Component 3 to establish a Center for Integration of Outbreak Analytics and Disease Modeling into Practice, called Forecasting and Surveillance of Infectious Threats and Epidemics (ForeSITE). The principal entities that constitute our Center are University of Utah, Washington State University (WSU), and Utah Department of Health and Human Services (Utah DHHS). Our extensive network of implementing partners includes other state health departments (Washington, Idaho, and Montana); local health districts in Utah and Washington; regional healthcare organizations (University of Utah Health, Intermountain Healthcare); community hospitals in Washington and Idaho; and a federal healthcare system (Veterans Affairs). This coalition covers much of the Intermountain West, a region that has unmet needs in public health response. The delayed onset but marked severity of the COVID-19 pandemic in this region can be attributed in part to the isolation and small size of rural communities, and the limited resources of health departments. Our inclusion of healthcare organizations as additional implementing partners reflects the crucial contribution of clinicians and healthcare systems toward combatting infectious disease threats. Our Center will implement a library of modeling and analytic tools belonging to five toolsets: automated alerting, parameter estimation, scenario planning, forecasting/nowcasting, and economic impact analysis. We selected these tools in response to gaps our partners have described in existing capabilities, drawing from our two decades of experience in working with public health departments. We implemented prototype versions of these tools during the COVID-19 pandemic and found that they were valuable to health system operations, public health departments and political leaders. The approach that we instituted to apply models to support COVID-19 response can be extended and replicated in other settings in future outbreaks. We will implement and evaluate analytic and forecasting toolsets that are perceived as valid and trustworthy, engineered to serve distinct functions, and customizable to different types of users. We will follow user-centered design principles to create interactive visual displays that are tailored to context and population scale, providing users the flexibility to select the tools they need. For each set of tools and underlying models, we have assembled teams of researchers who possess expertise in the requisite methods and who have extensive experience in generating practically useful products. Our academic collaboration between University of Utah and WSU strengthens our deep bench in computational epidemiology, visual analytics, implementation science, public health preparedness, and infectious disease modeling. Our engine for pilot testing innovations in real-world settings is embodied in three foundational cores: Data Curation, which will employ data standards and curate libraries; Computation and Visual Analytics, which will generate models that operate under computational and time constraints to deliver modeling tools that meet partner decision-making needs for outbreak investigation and response; Sociotechnical System Evaluation, Design, and Implementation (STEDI), which will integrate and optimize the technical and social elements involved in disease modeling, public health decision-making, and response to infectious disease emergencies. In summary, our proposal builds on our exceptional track record of collaboration with CDC and with State, Tribal, Local and Territorial Health Department (STLT) partners. We have developed a rigorous evaluation plan that will lead to iterative improvements in modeling capabilities and analytical tools. We will enthusiastically contribute to the success of the Outbreak Analytics and Disease Modeling Network by working jointly with CDC and other Centers.
