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Health and economic impact analysis of a reduced nicotine cigarette policy on vulnerable populations

Award Number: K01DA056424
ORGANIZATION: NATIONAL INSTITUTE ON DRUG ABUSE
OPDIV: NIH
AWARD CLASS: DISCRETIONARY
AWARD ACTIVITY TYPE: TRAINING/TRAINEESHIP
PERIOD OF PERFORMANCE START DATE: 07/15/2022
PERIOD OF PERFORMANCE END DATE: 06/30/2027

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Health and economic impact analysis of a reduced nicotine cigarette policy on vulnerable populations - PROJECT SUMMARY/ABSTRACT The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) is considering a regulation that would reduce nicotine content in cigarettes to non-addictive levels. This could have profound implications for the health of the US population as cigarette smoking remains a leading cause of morbidity and mortality, and incurs nearly $170 billion in annual health care costs. An FDA analysis shows that a reduced nicotine cigarette policy could avert over 8 million premature deaths through 2100, but no study has evaluated its potential economic impact. It is also unknown how this policy could affect vulnerable populations, defined as groups at greater risk for poor health due to social factors or illness and disability. Clinical trials suggest that reduced nicotine cigarettes decrease smoking among vulnerable populations, but no study has evaluated their potential long-term implications. I plan to use simulation modeling methods to conduct health and economic impact analysis of a reduced nicotine cigarette policy for two vulnerable populations: 1) people with major depression, who continue to have higher smoking rates and less success with quitting compared to the general population; and 2) socioeconomically disadvantaged women of reproductive age, whose smoking increases risk for adverse maternal and infant health outcomes. I will extend a simulation model of smoking and depression that I previously developed to incorporate morbidity and economic outcomes, including direct medical costs and productivity losses. I will also develop a smoking model specific to women of reproductive age and level of educational attainment. This model will simulate smoking during pregnancy and its adverse effects on maternal and infant health, including premature delivery, low-birth-weight, small for gestational age, and sudden infant death syndrome. For both vulnerable populations, I will simulate the potential effects of e-cigarette use and an illicit market for normal nicotine cigarettes under a reduced nicotine cigarette policy. To be successful with this study and accurately assess the impact of the proposed regulation on costs to society, I need training in economic evaluation. I also need to deepen my understanding of the science of addiction and acquire background in reproductive health. To that end, I will enroll in formal coursework in cost- effectiveness analysis, addiction neurobiology, and reproductive health. I will also receive training from my team of mentors, who consist of NIH-funded investigators in tobacco regulatory science, health and economic modeling, behavioral pharmacology, and reproductive and mental health. At Yale, I will access a rich research environment through regular opportunities offered by the Tobacco Center of Regulatory Science, the Public Health Modeling Unit, and the Program in Addiction Medicine. This award will provide me with the skills and training I need to become a leading expert in health and economic modeling of addiction in vulnerable populations, and secure my path to career independence in tobacco regulatory science.


Issue Date FY	Funding FY	Legal Entity Name	Legal Entity Address	Legal Entity City	Legal Entity State	Legal Entity Zip Code	Legal Entity COUNTY	Legal Entity COUNTRY	Assistance Listing	Award Code	Budget Year	Action Date	Action Type	Action Amount

Issue Date FY: 2026 ( Subtotal = $0 )
2026	2025	YALE UNIV	150 MUNSON ST	NEW HAVEN	CT	06511	SOUTH CENTRAL CT	USA	Family Smoking Prevention and Tobacco Control Act Regulatory Research	000	4	2/11/2026	NON-COMPETING CONTINUATION	-$154,374
2026	2025	RUTGERS THE STATE UNIVERSITY OF NEW JERSEY	65 BERGEN ST	NEWARK	NJ	07107	ESSEX	USA	Family Smoking Prevention and Tobacco Control Act Regulatory Research	001	5	2/11/2026	CHANGE OF GRANTEE / TRAINING INSTITUTION / AWARDING INSTITUTION	$154,374
														Subtotal = $0

Issue Date FY: 2025 ( Subtotal = $169,700 )
2025	2025	YALE UNIV	150 MUNSON ST	NEW HAVEN	CT	06511	SOUTH CENTRAL CT	USA	Family Smoking Prevention and Tobacco Control Act Regulatory Research	002	4	6/30/2025	NON-COMPETING CONTINUATION	$169,700
2025	2024	YALE UNIV	150 MUNSON ST	NEW HAVEN	CT	06511	SOUTH CENTRAL CT	USA	Family Smoking Prevention and Tobacco Control Act Regulatory Research	001	3	3/21/2025	NON-COMPETING CONTINUATION	$0
2025	2024	YALE UNIV	150 MUNSON ST	NEW HAVEN	CT	06511	SOUTH CENTRAL CT	USA	Family Smoking Prevention and Tobacco Control Act Regulatory Research	000	3	1/13/2025	NON-COMPETING CONTINUATION	$0
														Subtotal = $169,700

Issue Date FY: 2024 ( Subtotal = $171,644 )
2024	2024	YALE UNIV	150 MUNSON ST	NEW HAVEN	CT	06511	SOUTH CENTRAL CT	USA	Family Smoking Prevention and Tobacco Control Act Regulatory Research	001	3	5/24/2024	NON-COMPETING CONTINUATION	$171,644
2024	2023	YALE UNIV	150 MUNSON ST	NEW HAVEN	CT	06511	SOUTH CENTRAL CT	USA	Family Smoking Prevention and Tobacco Control Act Regulatory Research	000	2	3/14/2024	NON-COMPETING CONTINUATION	$0
														Subtotal = $171,644

Issue Date FY: 2023 ( Subtotal = $171,644 )
2023	2023	YALE UNIVERSITY	105 WALL ST	NEW HAVEN	CT	06511	SOUTH CENTRAL CT	USA	Family Smoking Prevention and Tobacco Control Act Regulatory Research	000	2	6/16/2023	NON-COMPETING CONTINUATION	$171,644
														Subtotal = $171,644

Issue Date FY: 2022 ( Subtotal = $146,659 )
2022	2022	YALE UNIVERSITY	105 WALL ST	NEW HAVEN	CT	06511	SOUTH CENTRAL CT	USA	Family Smoking Prevention and Tobacco Control Act Regulatory Research	000	1	7/8/2022	NEW	$146,659
														Subtotal = $146,659

Grand Total All Awards = $659,647

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Health and economic impact analysis of a reduced nicotine cigarette policy on vulnerable populations

Award Number: K01DA056424

ORGANIZATION: NATIONAL INSTITUTE ON DRUG ABUSE

OPDIV: NIH

AWARD CLASS: DISCRETIONARY

AWARD ACTIVITY TYPE: TRAINING/TRAINEESHIP

PERIOD OF PERFORMANCE START DATE: 07/15/2022

PERIOD OF PERFORMANCE END DATE: 06/30/2027

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