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Using computational modeling to formalize an integrated psychosocial theory of loneliness

Award Number: F31MH136730
ORGANIZATION: NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF MENTAL HEALTH
OPDIV: NIH
AWARD CLASS: DISCRETIONARY
AWARD ACTIVITY TYPE: FELLOWSHIP/SCHOLARSHIP/STUDENT LOANS
PERIOD OF PERFORMANCE START DATE: 01/01/2025
PERIOD OF PERFORMANCE END DATE: 08/31/2026

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Using computational modeling to formalize an integrated psychosocial theory of loneliness - PROJECT SUMMARY/ABSTRACT High levels of loneliness have become an urgent public health crisis. Though transient loneliness is a normative experience that can promote helpful behaviors and lead to positive outcomes (e.g., social reconnection), when loneliness becomes chronic it is associated with a host of negative health consequences, such as depression and anxiety. Research in cognitive, clinical, and social psychology, sociology, and network science has provided valuable insights into the mechanisms underlying social (dis)connection and loneliness. However, these fields typically conduct research in isolation from one another and have historically used methods that are unlikely to adequately capture the complex biopsychosocial nature of loneliness. Computational modeling offers a promising approach to help address these limitations. Computational modeling can be used to integrate hypotheses generated by different disciplines and rigorously test these theoretical predictions by formalizing them (i.e., representing them in the language of mathematics and/or computer code as opposed to words). For instance, rather than simply stating that chronic loneliness arises from an interaction between social network structure (e.g., number and closeness of friends) and beliefs about social interaction, this prediction can be written as computer code that represents people as interacting agents, driven by specific behavioral rules, that exhibit dynamic changes in cognition as they interact and assess their social relationships in comparison to others’. Such a model can then be used to simulate data that mirrors real- world systems (e.g., a social network comprised of individual people) and the model outcomes can be compared to available empirical findings to determine how well theories of loneliness can explain what is observed in reality, thereby presenting an opportunity to identify and correct erroneous assumptions or gaps in knowledge and theory. This understanding is key to selecting effective intervention targets. The overarching aim of this research is to formalize an integrated psychosocial theory of loneliness. First, a systematic review will be conducted to identify empirically-supported social and cognitive factors related to loneliness. Second, agent-based modeling and differential equations will be used to model individuals’ changing thoughts and behaviors within an evolving social network. Finally, simulated data from the model will be compared to the empirical findings identified in the systematic review. Results will provide a systematic assessment of loneliness theories, help identify novel research questions, and pinpoint targets for intervention and prevention efforts. A training plan consisting of close mentorship, courses and workshops, hands-on learning, and interdisciplinary collaboration has been carefully planned to develop the expertise in mathematical and computational modeling and theories of social relationships necessary to carry out the proposed research and establish an independent research career.


Issue Date FY	Funding FY	Legal Entity Name	Legal Entity Address	Legal Entity City	Legal Entity State	Legal Entity Zip Code	Legal Entity COUNTY	Legal Entity COUNTRY	Assistance Listing	Award Code	Budget Year	Action Date	Action Type	Action Amount

Issue Date FY: 2026 ( Subtotal = $27,164 )
2026	2026	RECTOR & VISITORS OF THE UNIVERSITY OF VIRGINIA	1001 EMMET ST N	CHARLOTTESVILLE	VA	22903	CHARLOTTESVILLE CITY	USA	Mental Health Research Grants	000	2	2/5/2026	NON-COMPETING CONTINUATION	$27,164
2026	2026	RECTOR & VISITORS OF THE UNIVERSITY OF VIRGINIA	1001 EMMET ST N	CHARLOTTESVILLE	VA	22903	CHARLOTTESVILLE CITY	USA	Mental Health Research Grants	002	2	2/24/2026	NON-COMPETING CONTINUATION	$0
2026	2024	RECTOR & VISITORS OF THE UNIVERSITY OF VIRGINIA	1001 EMMET ST N	CHARLOTTESVILLE	VA	22903	CHARLOTTESVILLE CITY	USA	Mental Health Research Grants	001	1	2/23/2026	NEW	$0
														Subtotal = $27,164

Issue Date FY: 2024 ( Subtotal = $40,237 )
2024	2024	RECTOR & VISITORS OF THE UNIVERSITY OF VIRGINIA	1001 EMMET ST N	CHARLOTTESVILLE	VA	22903	CHARLOTTESVILLE CITY	USA	Mental Health Research Grants	000	1	9/5/2024	NEW	$40,237
														Subtotal = $40,237

Grand Total All Awards = $67,401

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Using computational modeling to formalize an integrated psychosocial theory of loneliness

Award Number: F31MH136730

ORGANIZATION: NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF MENTAL HEALTH

OPDIV: NIH

AWARD CLASS: DISCRETIONARY

AWARD ACTIVITY TYPE: FELLOWSHIP/SCHOLARSHIP/STUDENT LOANS

PERIOD OF PERFORMANCE START DATE: 01/01/2025

PERIOD OF PERFORMANCE END DATE: 08/31/2026

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