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Investigating the potential of wastewater surveillance data to improve SARS-CoV-2 dynamical modeling and forecasting

Award Number: F31AI176851
ORGANIZATION: NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF ALLERGY & INFECTIOUS DISEASES
OPDIV: NIH
AWARD CLASS: DISCRETIONARY
AWARD ACTIVITY TYPE: FELLOWSHIP/SCHOLARSHIP/STUDENT LOANS
PERIOD OF PERFORMANCE START DATE: 08/01/2024
PERIOD OF PERFORMANCE END DATE: 07/31/2026

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Investigating the potential of wastewater surveillance data to improve SARS-CoV-2 dynamical modeling and forecasting - ABSTRACT Policy makers, researchers and public health officials rely on forecasts from infectious disease models to anticipate resource use, assess risk, and plan public health interventions. In order to effectively and accurately predict future cases and hospitalization rates of COVID-19, these models depend on high quality data on infections in the population. However, as clinical testing becomes less reliable with the ubiquity of at-home antigen tests and the frequency of case reporting is decreased in many states, there is a critical need to identify alternative data sources. Wastewater-based surveillance is a promising supplement to traditional data sources for monitoring infection at the population level: it is anonymous, cost-effective, and unaffected by variation in clinical testing and reporting. It also reflects infections in the population days or weeks sooner than they would be captured by reported cases or hospitalizations. While there is ample evidence that wastewater concentrations of SARS-CoV-2 correlate with COVID-19 cases, wastewater data have rarely been used to inform modeling and forecasting, and the benefit of incorporating wastewater surveillance data into data-driven dynamical models for forecasting has not been rigorously assessed. The goal of this project is to leverage a rich dataset from the New York State Wastewater Surveillance Network to evaluate the potential for wastewater surveillance data to improve inference of SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics. Partnering with the New York State Wastewater Surveillance Network, which includes over 150 wastewater treatment plants across 61 counties of New York State and represents a population of more than 15 million, provides a unique opportunity to investigate the value of wastewater surveillance for modeling at a larger scale. We will build on an existing metapopulation model developed by the Shaman Lab to test how inference and forecasting of transmission dynamics can be improved by integrating wastewater data. In other words, we will use retrospective data from New York State to rigorously assess: can we predict future cases more accurately by using wastewater data to inform our models? This study would be the first that we know of to use a metapopulation structure, which considers population movement, to model SARS-CoV-2 with wastewater surveillance data. By more realistically modeling how human populations move and mix, this model structure can better capture real-world transmission dynamics. This will be crucial to realistically evaluate whether wastewater data can be relied on in the future to forecast COVID-19 incidence, which will be particularly important as clinical testing fluctuates and case reporting becomes sparser. It may also motivate the application of wastewater-based modeling to other pathogens detectable in feces, facilitating the development of prompt, cost-effective forecasts of other communicable diseases in the future.


Issue Date FY	Funding FY	Legal Entity Name	Legal Entity Address	Legal Entity City	Legal Entity State	Legal Entity Zip Code	Legal Entity COUNTY	Legal Entity COUNTRY	Assistance Listing	Award Code	Budget Year	Action Date	Action Type	Action Amount

Issue Date FY: 2025 ( Subtotal = $36,617 )
2025	2025	THE TRUSTEES OF COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY IN THE CITY OF NEW YORK	630 W 168TH ST FL 4	NEW YORK	NY	10032	NEW YORK	USA	Allergy and Infectious Diseases Research	002	2	9/11/2025	NON-COMPETING CONTINUATION	$36,617
2025	2024	THE TRUSTEES OF COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY IN THE CITY OF NEW YORK	630 W 168TH ST FL 4	NEW YORK	NY	10032	NEW YORK	USA	Allergy and Infectious Diseases Research	000	1	3/14/2025	TERMINATION	$0
2025	2024	THE TRUSTEES OF COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY IN THE CITY OF NEW YORK	630 W 168TH ST FL 4	NEW YORK	NY	10032	NEW YORK	USA	Allergy and Infectious Diseases Research	001	1	7/28/2025	OTHER REVISION	$0
														Subtotal = $36,617

Issue Date FY: 2024 ( Subtotal = $36,053 )
2024	2024	THE TRUSTEES OF COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY IN THE CITY OF NEW YORK	630 W 168TH ST FL 4	NEW YORK	NY	10032	NEW YORK	USA	Allergy and Infectious Diseases Research	001	1	5/13/2024	NEW	$1,280
2024	2024	THE TRUSTEES OF COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY IN THE CITY OF NEW YORK	630 W 168TH ST FL 4	NEW YORK	NY	10032	NEW YORK	USA	Allergy and Infectious Diseases Research	000	1	3/22/2024	NEW	$34,773
2024	2024	THE TRUSTEES OF COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY IN THE CITY OF NEW YORK	630 W 168TH ST FL 4	NEW YORK	NY	10032	NEW YORK	USA	Allergy and Infectious Diseases Research	002	1	5/13/2024	NEW	$0
														Subtotal = $36,053

Grand Total All Awards = $72,670

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Investigating the potential of wastewater surveillance data to improve SARS-CoV-2 dynamical modeling and forecasting

Award Number: F31AI176851

ORGANIZATION: NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF ALLERGY & INFECTIOUS DISEASES

OPDIV: NIH

AWARD CLASS: DISCRETIONARY

AWARD ACTIVITY TYPE: FELLOWSHIP/SCHOLARSHIP/STUDENT LOANS

PERIOD OF PERFORMANCE START DATE: 08/01/2024

PERIOD OF PERFORMANCE END DATE: 07/31/2026

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