Abstract
Low U.S. fertility levels have been well documented, with widespread concern that low fertility
levels may not rebound. Fertility started to decline during the Great Recession (2007-2008) and
never responded to improvements in the economy. The ongoing pandemic has led to
widespread uncertainty and stress about health, the economy, relationships, and family life,
which may result in further fertility declines. In this new climate men and women may be in the
process of developing new schema, broader sets of interrelated attitudes that guide decisions
and behaviors. We are now in a critical time period to assess Americans’ fertility plans and
schemas and potentially to contribute to a fertility recovery. Further, the deleterious effects of
the pandemic will not be experienced evenly, and will have the greatest impact on the most
economically marginalized groups. Although researchers have documented sociodemographic
variation in fertility, these investigations remain incomplete because existing data cannot identify
the mechanisms underlying these differentials in the current pandemic climate. While there have
been speculations about the implications of the pandemic on fertility, researchers have been
hampered in analyses of the effects of the pandemic due to a lack of population-based data
focused specifically on fertility during this time period. We draw on two complementary data
collections occurring during the pandemic that allow analysis of fertility plans from differing
perspectives. First, the Toledo Adolescent Relationships Study (TARS) is the only major
longitudinal data currently in the field designed to assess changes in fertility plans, making it
possible to establish causality. Second, the National Couples’ Health and Time Use Study
(NCHAT) includes the necessary design and measurement to investigate the effects of partners
and spouses on fertility plans. Aim 1 will assess fertility expectations during the pandemic
accounting for variation in exposure to and experiences of relational and financial uncertainty
and stress, allowing identification of the groups most likely to alter their fertility goals. Aim 2 will
examine the role of uncertainty and stress in fertility decision-making from the perspectives of
both members of the couple using direct and proxy reports from spouse and partners in the
NCHAT. Aim 3 will capitalize on the TARS’ longitudinal data (collected pre-pandemic and midst-
pandemic) to determine the magnitude of change in fertility expectations and to determine how
uncertainty and stress influence fertility plans. Together the findings set the groundwork for
future work on fertility in this era, set the basis for fertility projections, and identify possible
targets for a fertility recovery.
