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Dynamic Prediction of Renal Failure Using Longitudinal Prognostic Information among Patients with Chronic Kidney Disease and Kidney Transplant

Award Number: R01DK118079
ORGANIZATION: NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF DIABETES & DIGESTIVE & KIDNEY DISEASES
OPDIV: NIH
AWARD CLASS: DISCRETIONARY
AWARD ACTIVITY TYPE: SCIENTIFIC/HEALTH RESEARCH (INCLUDES SURVEYS)

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Project Summary/Abstract Patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) and patients receiving kidney transplantation (KTx) are at risk of kidney/graft failure. Accurate estimation of the time of these adverse clinical events is of great importance for patient counseling and for the timing of interventions. In clinical practice, these patients are often monitored at recurrent clinical visits for the progression of the disease. It is desirable to have tools that can make personalized, real-time prediction of the risk of kidney/graft failure at each clinical visit, adapting to the time- varying patient conditions. Currently, the published risk prediction equation for CKD and KTx are usually developed by relating risk factors measured at an earlier time point, such as baseline, to the time of subsequent adverse event in a regression model. This approach cannot incorporate the longitudinal data from all the clinical visits, and may generate suboptimal or biased risk estimation and are not suitable for real-time prediction. Building upon on recent advancement in dynamic prediction (DP) methodology from the statistical literature, we aim to develop personalized, time-adapted risk prediction equations for CKD and KTx respectively. The proposed works include developing novel DP methods for kidney/graft failure with adjustment for the competing risk by death, external validation and re-calibration, and creating software for routine use in clinical practice. For CKD, the prediction model of kidney failure will be developed from the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort Study (CRIC) data, and validated using the electronic health records of Veterans Health Administration. For KTx, the prediction model of graft failure will be developed from the Wisconsin Allograft Recipient Database (WisARD), and validated using the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients (SRTR). The statistical methodology and software can be used in other medical specialties beyond nephrology to develop risk prediction models for adverse clinical events from longitudinal data.


Issue Date FY	Funding FY	Legal Entity Name	Legal Entity Address	Legal Entity City	Legal Entity State	Legal Entity Zip Code	Legal Entity COUNTY	Legal Entity COUNTRY	Assistance Listing	Award Code	Budget Year	Action Date	Action Type	Action Amount

Issue Date FY: 2025 ( Subtotal = -$30,720 )
2025	2022	THE UNIVERISTY OF TEXAS MD ANDERSON CANCER CENTER, A COMPONENT OF THE UNIVERISTY OF TEXAS SYSTEM	1515 HOLCOMBE BLVD	HOUSTON	TX	77030	HARRIS	USA	Diabetes, Digestive, and Kidney Diseases Extramural Research	000	4	10/9/2024	NON-COMPETING CONTINUATION	-$30,720
														Subtotal = -$30,720

Issue Date FY: 2022 ( Subtotal = $331,381 )
2022	2022	UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS M. D. ANDERSON CANCER CENTER, THE	1515 HOLCOMBE BLVD	HOUSTON	TX	77030	HARRIS	USA	Diabetes, Digestive, and Kidney Diseases Extramural Research	000	4	3/25/2022	NON-COMPETING CONTINUATION	$331,381
														Subtotal = $331,381

Issue Date FY: 2021 ( Subtotal = $349,730 )
2021	2021	UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS M D ANDERSON CANCER CENTER	1515 HOLCOMBE BLVD UNIT 207	HOUSTON	TX	77030	HARRIS	USA	Diabetes, Digestive, and Kidney Diseases Extramural Research	000	3	3/10/2021	NON-COMPETING CONTINUATION	$349,730
														Subtotal = $349,730

Issue Date FY: 2020 ( Subtotal = $316,530 )
2020	2020	UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS M D ANDERSON CANCER CENTER	1515 HOLCOMBE BLVD UNIT 207	HOUSTON	TX	77030	HARRIS	USA	Diabetes, Digestive, and Kidney Diseases Extramural Research	000	2	3/5/2020	NON-COMPETING CONTINUATION	$316,530
														Subtotal = $316,530

Issue Date FY: 2019 ( Subtotal = $316,857 )
2019	2019	UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS M D ANDERSON CANCER CENTER	1515 HOLCOMBE BLVD UNIT 207	HOUSTON	TX	77030	HARRIS	USA	Diabetes, Digestive, and Kidney Diseases Extramural Research	000	1	4/10/2019	NEW	$316,857
														Subtotal = $316,857

Grand Total All Awards = $1,283,778

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Dynamic Prediction of Renal Failure Using Longitudinal Prognostic Information among Patients with Chronic Kidney Disease and Kidney Transplant

Award Number: R01DK118079

ORGANIZATION: NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF DIABETES & DIGESTIVE & KIDNEY DISEASES

OPDIV: NIH

AWARD CLASS: DISCRETIONARY

AWARD ACTIVITY TYPE: SCIENTIFIC/HEALTH RESEARCH (INCLUDES SURVEYS)

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